The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begin at noon and on Friday.
And the first order of business in the House of Representatives is to elect the Constitutional Officer for the legislative branch of government: the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Only the House votes for the President. And the House can do nothing — I repeat, anything — until it elects a Speaker.
It can only swear in its members in the House of Representatives taps on a speaker and he or she is sworn in. The Speaker then swears in the rest of the body en masse. The House must then adopt a set of rules that regulate daily business operations. Only then can the House debate bills, vote on them, and assemble committees for hearings.
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If the House fails to elect a speaker on the first vote, it must proceed to a second vote.
And on and on.
Consider that the House of Representatives had never held a second vote for the Speaker in a century before the Donnybrook two years ago. It took four rounds of voting to re-elect the late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.
What is past is prologue for the House of Representatives. Consider how the House of Representatives consumed 15 rounds over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January 2023. The chairmanship remained vacant — and so the House froze — for 22 days after Republicans dumped McCarthy nine. months later. Republicans in the House of Representatives then named House Majority Leader Steve Scalise as Speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before there was even a vote. House GOPers then asked Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become chairman. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes for speaker of the House of Representatives, hemorrhaging support with each round of voting. House Republicans then anointed Tom Emmer, R-Minn., as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Emmer withdrew hours later.
Fox News Digital spoke briefly with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a rare appearance on Capitol Hill
House Republicans ultimately nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the position. The Republican from Louisiana won on the floor. But since then, some conservatives have been disappointed with Johnson. They have detailed how he handled several interim spending bills from November last year. They didn’t like that he introduced a bill to help Ukraine. They opposed him introducing another interim spending bill in September. They really didn’t like how he worked with Democrats on important, mandatory pieces of legislation. And then there was the misstep of the staggering 1,500-page interim spending package that Mr. Trump and Elon Musk was crushed from afar in December. Johnson then followed up President-elect Trump’s bid with another spending package – including an increase in the debt ceiling. But 38 Republicans in the House of Representatives supported that bill.
So Johnson’s tenure has been bumpy. And that’s why he’s on the hook Friday afternoon during the vote for chairman. Everyone on Capitol Hill is on edge about getting this done as quickly as possible.
Here’s what happens Friday at noon:
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Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a speaker. The first assignment is a ‘call from the House’. That’s where the House determines how many of its elected members there are, by simply voting “present.” The house should clock in out of 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall — saying he had no “intend” to serve in the new Congress despite winning reelection.
See if there are any absences on that House call. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health issues recently — including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., are likely to attend. But the election of the chairman is about the math. How many lawmakers report to the House of Representatives chamber will determine the margins in the Speaker’s vote.
Then it’s about nominating speeches. Lisa McClain, chair of the House Republican Conference, will nominate Johnson for chair. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can then put someone’s name in the nomination.
The House then arranges the list of elected members alphabetically. Each member stands and responds verbally, stating his or her choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, D-N.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names from the block.
(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
But lawmakers can vote for whoever they want. This also applies to persons who are not Members of Parliament. That’s why votes have been cast over the years for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker.
Here’s what Johnson – or anyone else – needs to do to win the Speakership:
The winning candidate must receive an outright majority of all members voting for a named candidate.
Let’s say there are 434 members and they all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets the votes of all 219 Republicans, he wins. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? No dice. Under those circumstances, Johnson would have outpaced Jeffries in the future, 217-215 – with two votes going to other candidates. But the ‘most votes’ don’t win. 217 is not an outright majority of the members of the House of Representatives voting for someone by name. The House has YET to hold a vote to elect a Speaker.
Fox is told that there are between twelve and seventeen Republicans who could vote for someone other than Johnson. And some Republicans are cautious about their voting habits.
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Here’s something to watch: members voting “present.”
Instead of voting for someone other than Johnson, some Republicans may protest by simply voting “present.” A ‘present’ vote does not count against Johnson.
So let’s do some hypothetical math:
Let’s say 434 members voted. Jeffries has the support of all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote ‘present’. In other words: do not vote for a candidate by name. Johnson scores 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 members voted for someone by name. 216 is an outright majority of 431. 434 doesn’t matter under the circumstances. So Johnson becomes chairman.
But there is a serious danger in too many Republicans voting “present.”
Consider this scenario:
All 215 Democrats vote for Jeffries. Only five Republicans voted “present.” Johnson records 214 votes. 429 members voted for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who the Speaker is? Jeffries. He gathered an outright majority of all members who voted for a named candidate.
(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
As they say in the movies, “You are playing a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond.”
With such a thin margin in the House of Representatives, Republicans are definitely tinkering with fire when they get too cute by half. Yes. Some conservatives may not want to re-elect Johnson as chairman. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries.
It is therefore difficult to say what will happen on Friday afternoon. If the House hesitates too long, it could delay the certification of the Electoral College vote on Monday. The House and Senate are due to meet in a joint session of Congress on January 6 to announce the election results. No Speaker of the House? No joint session.
But if this continues, something else will probably happen. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans have had it with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other freelancers. Expect a fierce fight between these two factions as Republicans struggle to elect a chairman.
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And as we wrote before: what is past is a prologue.
A protracted battle for the Speakership serves as a prologue to the looming internecine fights between Republicans when it comes to governing. This does not mean that there has been the implementation of a single part of the agenda of newly-elected President Trump.
