Irish exit polls show the incumbent centre-right parties could likely form a coalition government, although vote counting continues on Sunday and left-wing Sinn Féin remains in the running.
The centre-right party Fine Gael was the first choice of 21% of voters, and another centre-right party, Fianna Fáil, had 19.5%, according to an Ipsos B&A poll, which asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had voted. .
The two parties, which governed in coalition before the election, would need the support of smaller groups or independent parties to achieve a majority in the Dail, the 174-seat lower house of parliament.
The left-wing opposition party Sinn Féin had 21.1% support, according to the poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
IRELAND VOTES IN A CLOSE ELECTION WHERE ESTABLISHMENTS HOPE TO REMAIN IN POWER
People arrive to cast their votes at the St Laurence O’Tooles National School polling station in Dublin, Friday, November 29, 2024, as voters head to the polls for Ireland’s 2024 general election. (Brian Lawless/PA via AP)
The two centre-right parties have yet to see the 88 seats needed to secure majority rule, and negotiations to form a coalition could drag on for weeks as Europe awaits a potential shake-up caused by the return of newly elected President Trump .
Sinn Féin made a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its left-wing policies and historic links with the Irish Republican army during three decades of government struggle. violence in Northern Ireland.
Although Sinn Feinwhich aims to reunite Ireland with the independent Republic of Ireland, could become the largest party in the Dail, it could struggle to find enough coalition partners to form a government. During the election campaign, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil insisted they would not go into government.
Fianna Fáil could get as many as 48 seats and Fine Gael 39, putting them on the 88-seat limit, Michael Gallagher, a former professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin, told RTE, citing the vote figures.
The most obvious candidates as coalition partners would be the centre-left parties Labor and the Social Democrats, which Gallagher believes could win eight seats each, according to Reuters.
A Sinn Fein-led government would shake up Irish politics – and the future of the United Kingdom. The party is already the largest in Northern Ireland, and a Sinn Féin government in the republic would push for a referendum on Irish reunification in the coming years. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald said Sinn Féin had “broken the political mould” in Ireland.
“Two-party politics is over now. It has been consigned to the dustbin of history, and that in itself is very important,” she told the Associated Press as she waited for the results at a counting center in Dublin. “The question now arises for us: what should we do with it?”
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald walks to cast her vote at Deaf Village Ireland (DVI) on Navan Road in Dublin as voters head to the polls for the 2024 general election in Ireland, Friday, November 29, 2024. (Niall Carson/PA via AP)
The poll only provides an indication and does not reveal which parties will form the next government. Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation, where each of the country’s 43 constituencies elects multiple legislators and voters rank the candidates in order of preference. As a result, it may take some time before the full results are known.
The cost of living – especially Ireland’s acute housing crisis – was a dominant topic in the three-week campaign. in addition to mass migrationwhich has become a focal problem in a country of 5.4 million that has long been characterized by emigration.
The election results will show whether Ireland can meet global competition trend of incumbents being ousted after years of pandemic, international instability and cost of living pressures.
Before election day, analysts said the most likely outcome was a new Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition. That remains a likely option. The frontrunners to become the next Prime Minister or Prime Minister are current Prime Minister Simon Harris of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin – despite the relatively lackluster performances of their parties. Harris, Martin and McDonald all won re-election to their seats in parliament, according to results announced on Saturday.
Irish Prime Minister and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris (centre), accompanied by his wife Caoimhe and children Cillian and Saoirse, casts his vote at Delgany National School, County Wicklow, as voters head to the polls for the general election of 2024 in Ireland, Friday November 29, 2024. (Niall Carson/PA via AP)
Fine Gael candidate Paschal Donohoe, a minister in the outgoing government, said the main theme of the election was “one of the central elections”.
“The big picture is that, at a time when incumbent governments across Europe are struggling to get re-elected, the two bigger parties within this government, in particular Fine Gael, will put in a very strong performance,” he told the newspaper . AP.
The Green Party, which had twelve seats in the previous parliament and supported the governing coalition, acknowledged that it was heading for a disappointing result.
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Among a large group of independent candidates was reputed organized crime boss Gerry ‘the Monk’ Hutch, who has seen a groundswell of support since being released on bail in Spain this month on money laundering charges, prompting him to run could propose before the elections.
Early results suggested he had a good chance of winning a seat in Dublin.
Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report.
