The stunning collapse of Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has sent shockwaves throughout the region and beyond, marking a dramatic turning point after nearly fourteen years of civil war. Assad’s rule, long supported by Russia and Iran, has come to an end, leaving his former patrons struggling to contain its fallout. The implications for these two powers, as well as for the broader regional and global landscape, are profound.
Russia’s involvement in Syria was never just about Assad, experts say. Securing a foothold in the Middle East was a cornerstone of Moscow’s strategy, with the Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval facility serving as vital assets for projecting power. But now that Assad is gone, Russia’s assets in Syria are at risk.
Rebekah Koffler, strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” emphasized its importance. “Syria has been a key theater in the broader proxy conflict between Russia and the US. The loss of Assad represents a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them critical bases in the Middle East and further expanding their military resources as they continue to fight in Ukraine.”
TRUMP RESPONDS AFTER REBELS OVERTAKE SYRIA AND REMOVE LONG DICTATOR: ‘ASSAD IS GONE’
Syrian opposition fighters remove a Syrian flag from an official building in Salamiyah, east of Hama, Syria, on Saturday, December 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described the fallout as: “Russia has been exposed for what it really is: a power that over-promises but under-delivers. They came to Syria with grand ambitions, but refrained from helping Assad survive joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah achieved little. Post-war reconstruction never began, and with Russia’s focus on Ukraine, Syria becomes a secondary priority. Now Russia has abandoned Assad and revealed itself as an unreliable partner.”
She said this failure is a message to Moscow’s allies. “In the Middle East, Russia now looks weak compared to the United States. Syrians are dismayed that Moscow has left “Baby Assad,” as the regime’s opponents call him, to collapse, while the US has shown strength by standing firmly by Israel’s side. time of need.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit Hmeymim air base in Latakia province, Syria, on December 11, 2017. (RUSSIA FLIGHTS/ Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ via REUTERS/File Photo)
Assad’s fall highlights Syria’s role as a battlefield in the proxy war between the US and Russia, as Koffler explained. “Before Assad’s fall, President Trump reportedly called on Putin to de-escalate tensions, but instead Putin escalated his nuclear doctrine, signaling a refusal to back down. Now that Assad, one of Putin’s most important allies, has lost Syria, the balance of power is shifting dramatically. This loss could give Trump new leverage over Putin, as the loss of Syria undermines Russia’s influence in the region and puts a strain on its already overstretched resources, opening a path for Trump to negotiate the end of the war from a stronger position to negotiate in Ukraine, taking advantage of Putin’s setbacks in Syria.”
IRAN
Iranian religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) meets with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in Tehran, Iran, on February 25, 2019. (PRESS OFFICE OF IRANIAN LEADER / HANDOUT/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
For Iran, the fall of Assad is a devastating blow to its long-term regional strategy. Syria was a crucial link in Tehran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’, which linked Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and enabled the smuggling of weapons across the region along a corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.
“This is an unprecedented, historic moment,” Svetlova said. “The Iranian ‘Ring of Fire’ carefully built by Qassem Soleimani, has been shattered. If Soleimani were alive, he would be shocked to see the collapse of his life’s work.”
The weakening of Hezbollah during the war with Israel further exacerbated Assad’s vulnerability, depriving the regime of critical support on the ground. Hezbollah was a major force assisting Assad’s army during the civil war, but after suffering heavy losses to Israeli forces, it could no longer provide sufficient support. Meanwhile, Iran has refrained from sending additional troops to reinforce Assad.
SYRIAN DICTATOR BASHAR ASSAD FLEES INTO EXILE AS ISLAMIC REBELS CONQUEST LAND
Rebel fighters stand at the Iranian embassy with a torn poster of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Qassem Soleimani, the top commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, after Syrian rebels announced they have deposed President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 8, 2024. (REUTERS/Firas Makdesi)
An Iranian journalist, speaking anonymously to Iran’s Fox News Digital, shed light on the internal reaction in Iran. “The majority of Iranians celebrate Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards have diverted resources to sustaining the Axis of Resistance, draining the wealth of the Iranian people. With Assad gone, there is hope that Iran’s oppressive influence in the region will diminish. weaken. This is a moment of joy for those who have long opposed the regime’s policies.”
“The Iranian people and the regime are worlds apart in terms of perspectives,” said another Iranian dissident who spoke anonymously to Fox News Digital from the country. “While the regime has largely watched Assad’s demise from the sidelines, likely due to its own internal weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian people are celebrating. A wave of hope and joy is spreading across social media, fueled by the idea that revolutions in countries joining the Islamic Republic – past or present – could cause a domino effect. For many, Assad’s collapse represents the weakening of the resistance axis and a glimmer of possibility for change within Iran itself.
ISLAMIC REBELS IN SYRIA CATCH ASSAD, PUTIN, IRAN GUARD REGIMES AND GIVE US NEW MIDDLE EAST HEADACHES
Rebels in northwestern Syria seized regime military vehicles along the route to Kweris Airport in Aleppo’s eastern countryside on December 2, 2024. (Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via APRami Alsayed/NurPhoto via AP)
While the fall of Assad creates opportunities for a new order in the Middle East, it also entails significant risks. The surprise attack on Assad’s forces, led by the Salafist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commanded by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, underlines the complexity of the situation. HTS, Syria’s most powerful rebel faction, emerged from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front but claimed in 2016 to cut ties with the group. The group is still designated as a terrorist organization by the US and other countries.
“Who will fill the void?” Koffler warned. “The rebels are not good people – they are the same extremists we have seen before. Even though they appear on Western media in a green T-shirt and give polished interviews, the reality is different. Removing one dictator often leads to even worse outcomes, as we saw in Iraq and Libya.”
Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s National Security Council and vice president at Mind Israel, believes there is a potential benefit for both the US and Israel.
Fighters enter the Rashidin district on the outskirts of Aleppo on their motorcycles as smoke billows in the background during fighting on November 29, 2024, as jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions continue their offensive in Aleppo province against government forces continue. (Photo by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)
“The collapse of the Assad regime underlines the failure of Russia and Iran as powers in the region. Meanwhile, the US has shown its strength by standing with Israel and choosing the winning side. This is a crucial opportunity for Washington to strengthen its position and expand its position. a coalition of moderate Arab states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Egypt – with Israel, to counter both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces. This coalition could provide a stabilizing force in the region and counter the growing influence of extremist groups.
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Golov said yes consequences for Beijing. “China has been largely absent from the conflicts in the Middle East, focusing instead on its global economic goals. Russia, on the other hand, has proven to be unreliable in Syria, withdrawing while the US supported its allies. This offers a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its position. in the Middle East, amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.”
