For more than a year, as clashes between Israel and Iranian-backed forces spread across the Middle East and spilled over into his country, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been conspicuously silent.
With Syria’s long civil war still smoldering, the state broken and bankrupt, and the backers who have propped up his regime – Russia, Iran and Hezbollah – all distracted and weakened by their own conflicts, Assad has laid low, seemingly hedging his bets.
But this week’s shock assault by Islamist rebels, who captured Aleppo, the country’s second city, within 48 hours of launching their offensive, dramatically exposed Syria’s instability, the fragility of Assad’s grip on his devastated country and the extent of resistance to his rule.
“Assad is extremely vulnerable,” said Haid Haid, a Syria analyst at Chatham House. “Everyone is waiting to see (whether) the regime will mobilize its forces and its allies to resist.”
Assad was already in a bind: Israel, which has carried out numerous strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria over the past 12 months, has publicly warned Assad that he is in the crosshairs and must choose a side.
But at the same time, Syria watchers say, Assad may have seen an opportunity to regain some degree of autonomy from the foreign backers he depends on, as Arab states and some European powers begin to question whether they should rehabilitate the authoritarian leader.
The worst of the Syrian civil war seemed to be over, Assad wasn’t going anywhere and it might be a good time to tackle international issues like refugees and drug trafficking, so the logic went.
The rebels’ surprising advances in the past few days have put paid to any push by Assad for greater independence from his international backers.
Pro-Assad forces melted away as the rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marched on Aleppo, a city of 2 million people, and then advanced south towards Hama.
They appeared to be trying to regroup on Sunday, as Syrian and Russian warplanes launched several airstrikes on Aleppo and Idlib, the northwestern province that is an HTS stronghold.
But analysts say the sense of demoralization and hopelessness in Syria, 13 years after civil war erupted from a popular uprising against the regime, has spread to the ranks of the military.
“Military units one after another (were) just retreating and collapsing and abandoning their positions,” said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute.
Syria’s economy has teetered on the brink of collapse for years, weighed down by unpaid debts owed to the regime’s foreign backers, Western sanctions and the collapse of the banking system in neighboring Lebanon, long a haven for Syrian entrepreneurs.
Over the past five years, Syrians have become impoverished and the regime has done little to improve people’s lives, said Syrian economic expert Jihad Yazigi. Along with rising taxes, expropriation of land and a crumbling economy, “is the corruption of the regime, which is embedded in every aspect of the state.”
The Assad family’s perceived disregard for Syrian suffering and its own greed helped spread discontent beyond pockets of Assad’s opponents and metastasized throughout Syrian society, including among pockets of loyalists from Assad’s own Alawite minority community.
“Many are furious because after years of loyalty, they are worse off than before,” Yazigi said.
Corruption and demoralization now run through many of Syria’s government institutions, while civil servants help oversee a state where very little is functioning.
While there have been recent attempts to professionalize the military, “it was too little, too late,” Yazigi said. Morale remained low with conscription and subsidy cuts continuing to hit soldiers hard.
In a rare case of criticism of the regime from Assad’s most loyal community, one Syrian Alawite said: “We are ready to protect our own villages and towns, but I don’t know if the Alawites will fight for the city of Aleppo. . . The regime stopped giving us reasons to continue supporting it.”
The sense of desperation has been deepened by the regime’s apparent unwillingness to compromise with its opponents, even as its patron Russia has tried to push Assad to engage in the political process, analysts say.
However, efforts by Arab and some European states to reconnect with Assad revived after the devastating February 2023 earthquake that hit Turkey and northern Syria.
In July, Italy reopened its embassy in Damascus, joining the list of smaller European states that have restored diplomatic relations with Syria.
Arab states, including some that initially backed the rebels when the civil war broke out, have also sought to bring Assad out of the cold, with pressure led by Saudi Arabia leading to Syria’s readmission to the Arab League last year for the first time since 2011.
They hoped to extract concessions from Assad on drug trafficking that fueled regional instability and create a safe environment to allow refugees to return.
But Damascus has made negligible progress on both fronts.
Turkey, the main backer of Syrian opposition groups, has similarly shown interest in normalizing ties with Assad, which he has rejected.
Iraqi officials who helped broker talks between Damascus and Ankara this year said Assad’s government had refused to budge on the refugees, a flashpoint in Turkey’s domestic politics.
Instead, Assad has continued to attack rebel-held Idlib, pushing thousands more toward the border with Turkey, which hosts about 3 million Syrian refugees and has troops deployed in northern Syria, where it supports rebels.
Analysts say Turkey may not have specifically authorized the HTS-led offensive, but say the attack will serve its interests and potentially give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations.
“Since the summer, Assad has had the opportunity to sit down with (Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan and work out a plan whereby Turkey would actually take over a zone of influence in northern Syria,” said Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst. “He had the opportunity to negotiate it in a political way to save face, but he refused.”
Assad has always seen concessions as a sign of weakness, but the HTS offensive has highlighted his dependence on Russia, Iran and Iran-linked groups and the outsized role of foreign powers in Syria.
Assad’s first public appearance since the crisis erupted came only when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus on Sunday night. Russia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have pledged support for the regime.
But with Assad backed into a corner, a diplomatic solution may be his only way out, despite years of refusing to take part in it. “Assad can survive. . . but in the long run, there is no way to avoid sharing power with the opposition and that will be the end of the regime,” Abdeh said.
