Ahead of the penultimate matchday of the Champions League league stage, the champions of England, Spain and France are at risk of automatic elimination.
When Manchester City visit Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both 8pm GMT), and the competition’s three heavyweights know victory would make the final match a much more comfortable proposition.
The Champions League’s new 36-team single-league format means teams must finish ninth to 24th to earn a place in the knockout stage play-offs, while automatic progression as one of the top eight teams. the three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a look at how close each of the established contenders is to the knockout and the task ahead of them in the final two matches of this phase.
Man City: Danger in Paris?
Seven points from their first three games put City on course for automatic promotion, only for their subsequent form to mirror their stunning domestic performances since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s near-omnipotent reign.
Handy defeats to Sporting and Juventus came either side of a 3-3 draw at home with Feyenoord This was memorable for all the wrong reasons, with the 2022/23 champions throwing away a 3-0 lead after 74 minutes.
That left them one point above the relegation places, albeit with at least a four-goal margin higher than any of the last eight teams.
With PSG unbeaten at home this season and in even greater need of a positive result, a point for City might be welcome and they would almost certainly leave their fate in their own hands when they host a Brugge side two points above that on January 29. (8 p.m.).
A win would put them in a stronger position to finish between ninth and 16th and take the seed for the play-off draw. Just two wins would give them a chance to go through automatically.
City were last knocked out in the opening round in 2012/13, when they drew all their home games and lost all three away in a group that also included Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the campaign.
Guardiola, who won the competition in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, ​​has always reached the knockout stages in his 17 years in charge of Spain’s Bayern Munich and City.
The Spaniard’s shortest run in the competition as a manager came in his first season at the Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, missing out on the now-abolished away goals rule after a 6-6 aggregate draw with Monaco in the last 16.
PSG: In the relegation zone
Runners-up in 2019/20 and semi-finalists in two of the last four seasons, Paris are in the most precarious position of the three titans ahead of matchday 7, with one point in the highest relegation spot.
The plan may not be enough to lift them from the elimination spots. A point would lift them above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately above them, if the Croatian side lose to Arsenal on Wednesday (8 p.m. Slovan Bratislava’s side are still looking for their first point.
PSG are on an eight-game winning streak but have not faced opponents as potentially dangerous as City along the way. They will be hoping to save their best for last after snapping a European run of one point from four games with a 3-0 win at Salzburg on Matchday 6.
Defeat would increase the pressure before PSG travel to Stuttgart on January 29 (8pm) to face opponents who have started the year with three straight wins to move up to fourth in the Bundesliga.
Paris have endured several underwhelming campaigns – they were knocked out at the last 16 in 2021/22 and 2022/23 despite having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar among them – but have progressed from the starting stage each time during the current campaign period. 12 consecutive years of participation.
The last time they fell at the first hurdle in the competition was in 2004/05, when coach Vahid Halilhodzic was replaced by Laurent Fournier in February.
Current manager Luis Enrique has never been eliminated in the first leg when he has been in charge in the Champions League, winning the title in his first season at Barcelona in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old has led Paris nine points clear as part of an 18-game unbeaten start to this season’s Ligue 1, although they had to come from behind to win 2-1 at Lens on Saturday.
“I’m very happy with the win,” the former Spain coach said afterwards, describing PSG as having “good momentum” and “a lot of hope” for the Champions League.
Real Madrid: The holders are under threat
Along with City, Madrid were the only team to win all six of their group stage matches on their way to extending their own record by winning the Champions League for a 15th time in 2023/24.
An exit so early seems unthinkable for the competition’s dominant force, but defeats to Lille and Liverpool and a home defeat to AC Milan mean Madrid sit two points above the relegation places.
At home on Wednesday (8pm) to a Salzburg side with five losses and one win, Madrid will be strong favorites to finish the matchday on a positive note – but the end of their two-match winning streak in all competitions competitions may put them in need of a result a week later (8pm) in Brest, who are currently in the automatic knockout places.
Even the prospect of a play-off would be a surprise for a team featuring Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Madrid have reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of the last 16 seasons.
They have never been knocked out at the first opportunity in 70 years of competition, although they exited at the last 16 in 2018/19, sacking two managers in their first season following the departure of all-time Champions League top scorer, Cristiano Ronaldo.
They were eliminated at the same stage the following season, losing both legs of their last-16 tie 2-1 to City under Zinedine Zidane.
Director Carlo Ancelotti he has won the Champions League twice as a manager with AC Milan and three times as manager of Madrid, but the most successful boss in the competition’s history has been eliminated in the group stages three times.
Ancelotti’s Parma lost just one of their six games but were still relegated in 1997/98 when the second-placed teams were relegated. The Italian then finished bottom of a group with Juventus in 2000/01 and third with Napoli in 2018/19.
When are the Champions League Knockout Stage Playoffs?
Teams finishing between the top and last eight will enter two-legged knockout stage play-off ties.
The first matches will take place on February 11 and 12, followed by the second leg a week later. The draw for the ties will take place on January 31st.
When is the Champions League Round of 16?
The top eight teams and the play-off winners will take part in the first leg of the round of 16 on March 4 and 5, followed by the replays a week later.
The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on 21 February.
