When Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office in January, he will preside over a coveted “unity government” and his party will control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
But a handful of more moderate Republican senators could still block the president-elect legislative agendaand even block the confirmation of some of his most controversial cabinet nominees.
Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate, with 53 seats compared to Democrats’ 47. Republicans have 220 in the House, while Democrats are expected to have 215. But that lead could shrink when Trump nominates Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz to resign as would assume their new duties.
“These are still pretty close margins on the Hill. That’s where the institutional guardrails are going to come in,” said Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta, an advisory group, and a veteran of Republican presidential campaigns and Capitol Hill.
Those guardrails were on display last week, when the controversial former congressman Matt Gaetz withdrew his nomination for US attorney behind closed doors meetings with senators.
Four key Republican figures were among those reportedly clamoring for Gaetz’s appointment: outgoing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell; Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and new Utah Senator John Curtis.
The thin partisan majorities mean all eyes will be on the four, along with several other senators, as the administration prepares for a grueling confirmation process for some other controversial nominees and legislative battles over everything from government funding to plans for sweeping tax cuts.
Many Washington veterans say a relatively small group of Republican lawmakers could torpedo several of Trump’s other wardrobe choices.
“It wasn’t just one fire,” Madden said, referring to Gaetz, who has faced a string of allegations of sexual misconduct, including sex with minors, but denies all wrongdoing. “There were four or five (fires) at the same time,” he added, pointing to other nominations that caused alarm in Washington.
Critics questioned whether the three selections would withstand Senate scrutiny. Tulsi Gabbardnominated for director of national intelligence, Pete Hegseth for the Minister of Defense and Robert F. Kennedy Jr for Health and Human Services Secretary.
Gabbard, a National Guard veteran, has expressed pro-Russian views and has been criticized for praising Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, while Hegseth has faced questions about sexual abuse allegations. Hegseth has never been charged with a crime and denies any wrongdoing, but has agreed to a confidential financial settlement with his accuser.
Meanwhile, Kennedy has critics on the right, who dislike his past comments in favor of abortion rights, and on the center who are concerned about his vaccine skepticism.
At an event in Washington last week, Collins said Kennedy and other health appointees — including celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who will lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services — should face “extensive committee investigations” before any vote can take place. .
The moderate senator, who has represented Maine for nearly three decades, has occasionally stood up to Trump.
In the president-elect’s first term, she was one of seven Republicans who voted against his efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. Three years later, she was the only Republican senator to vote against Trump’s eleventh-hour appointment of conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court.
But Collins has also repeatedly acted in step with her party, including voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice.
Murkowski, a fellow moderate and longtime senator from Alaska, has a similar independent streak. In 2010, she lost the Republican primary to the right-wing Tea Party candidate, but won re-election as a write-in candidate, even though they are not on the ballot. In the first Trump administration, she opposed Kavanaugh’s nomination.
Curtis is a lesser known quantity. The outgoing Republican congressman was elected to the Senate this month to replace Mitt Romney, an outspoken Trump critic who decided not to seek re-election.
While Curtis has been less publicly critical of the president-elect than Romney, he is considered a moderate and has embraced liberal causes such as fighting climate change and protecting same-sex marriage. He also refused to endorse Trump in the 2024 primary.
Meanwhile, many on Capitol Hill expect McConnell not to shy away from confronting Trump in the new Congress. The Kentucky senator is handing over the Senate leadership to John Thune in January after nearly two decades as the House’s top Republican, freeing him from the worry of re-election.
McConnell has a complicated relationship with the president-elect. He refused to support Trump’s efforts to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory and blamed him for inciting riots at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. But he ended up backing the former president’s second bid for the White House — and was ridiculed by Trump for doing it.
He has made no secret of their long-standing differences, including issues of foreign policy — McConnell is seen as a Russia hawk and staunch supporter of NATO — and the Senate’s institutional norms.
Other names mentioned as possible obstacles to Trump include Bill Cassidy, the Louisiana senator who, along with Collins and Murkowski, was one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump of sedition in his second impeachment trial; and Indiana Republican Todd Young, who refused to endorse Trump’s latest bid for the White House.
Several upcoming Senate appointments could also tip the balance on Trump’s agenda.
Moderate Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has yet to name a replacement for JD Vance — who will resign his Senate seat to become vice president — while Florida Gov. and Trump’s former chief rival Ron DeSantis must choose who will replace outgoing Sen. Marco Rubio, Trump’s elections for the secretary of state. One of the candidates for the role is Lara Trump, the president-elect’s daughter-in-law, but DeSantis could choose someone who is seen as less committed to the Magus movement.
Still, many die-hard Washington veterans, including most Democrats, believe few Republicans will be willing to take on Trump given his tight grip on the party and penchant for revenge on his critics.
“We’ve seen tentative attempts to grow a backbone when at least a handful of Republicans have refused to even consider confirming Gaetz. . . but I’m not sure how many more times that will happen,” said Jim Manley, a former aide to Senate Democratic leaders including the late Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy.
He added, “I’m just not convinced that enough Republicans in the Senate will stand up to him when push comes to shove and the president puts everything on the line.”
