Unlock Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and co-editor of the newly published magazine ‘Turbulences in the Eastern Mediterranean: geopolitical, security and energy dynamics’
While the world is understandably focused on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, little attention is paid to the worsening tragedy next door. Largely unnoticed, Syria is going through a spasm of ominous violence.
Every corner of the country is affected. Israel conducts almost daily attacks on Iranian and Syrian headquarters and military sites, including Damascus. In September, it destroyed a large scientific and military production facility jointly run by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah in the Alawite heartland. Iranian-backed Syrian militias attacked American outposts in the east, prompting major American retaliation. Turkey has intensified its shelling of Kurdish positions in the northeast following an attack on a state-owned defense company in Ankara last month. The Syrian regime army and its Russian ally are striking the last rebel stand in Idlib, perhaps ahead of a new ground campaign. Isis rears its ugly head in the eastern desert.
Add to that a rapid decline in humanitarian aid for nearly 17 million people and an additional half a million Lebanese and Syrian refugees fleeing the war in Lebanon, and it’s a recipe for worsening dynamics.
All this is watched with great anxiety by President Bashar al-Assad, who owes his continued power to the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah during the Syrian war. Weak and easy to punish, Assad acts out of self-preservation. He has tacitly agreed to Iran-backed militias using southern Syria to fire rockets and drones at Israel, but his army is unable to join the fight and his security apparatus has been penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Otherwise, he risks a major Israeli attack, which could decapitate his regime. This is why Assad has been conspicuously silent on Gaza, even as he criticizes Israel. He never forgave Hamas for siding with the Syrian rebellion.
The Syrian president now sees an opportunity in the major reset of the regional balance currently underway. He felt limited and humiliated by his dependence on Hezbollah and Iran. Assad once saw the late Hassan Nasrallah as a mentor and Hezbollah as a source of regional legitimacy. Tellingly, it took him two days to issue a lyrical statement following Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader. The message behind the ornate rhetoric might best be summed up this way: “Thank you for your service. It was nice knowing you. Hi.”
In Assad’s view, a weakened Iran and Hezbollah could allow him to lean more heavily on Russia and court the Gulf and other Arab states. Seeking funding and political prestige, he sees Moscow as well-positioned to counter Western influence, facilitate a rapprochement with Turkey and accelerate Arab re-engagement. That’s why he beamed as he attended a conference in Riyadh last week to promote Palestinian statehood. He especially enjoyed meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who ended his expulsion from the Arab League in 2023.
Attempts to rehabilitate Assad are gaining momentum. Several European countries — including Italy, Hungary and Greece — want to abandon the current policy of isolation. They want to return Syrian refugees to the country despite the regime’s unwillingness to pursue genuine reconciliation. They hope that in exchange for financial support and political cover, Assad will agree to allow the return of a large number of refugees living not only in Europe but also in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.
These expectations are unjustified. For Assad, negotiations on security, refugees and drugs are a way to embroil foreign governments in protracted processes where the other side pays and makes concessions while he talks and makes no concessions. Assad hopes the new Trump administration will withdraw its troops from Syria and lift tough sanctions without having to get involved in the political process.
Turkey has shown interest in normalization with Assad, but he has demanded the prior withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, which Ankara cannot currently accept. The Lebanon crisis could also benefit him if Russia includes Assad in a regional deal to end the war there. Above all, however, Assad has no intention of breaking with Iran. In this hour of great danger, his calculation is that Tehran needs him more than the other way around.
Assad has always considered offering concessions a sign of weakness. It is better to remain persistent and wait for the environment to change. He probably did not expect such a large transformation as the one that is currently taking shape. Maybe he’ll get his way. Otherwise, you could lose everything.
