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The global advertising industry will surpass $1 billion in revenue for the first time this year, with Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba expected to earn more than half of the total in a market dominated by the technology sector.
GroupM, a media agency owned by WPP, estimates that globally advertising revenues will increase by 9.5 percent in 2024, more than expected in the middle of the year, despite difficult economic conditions in larger, developed markets such as the US and the UK.
The group predicts that the market will expand by a further 7.7 percent in 2025, and that most of the growth will directly benefit from the largest digital advertising sellers in the US. technological sectorand not to marketing service providers such as advertising agencies.
GroupM decided to exclude political advertising in the US, citing its “distorting” effect on year-over-year comparisons. In 2024 US political ad revenue added $15.1 billion to the total, almost a third more than in the 2020 presidential election year.
In the report, GroupM states that “while the next few years are unlikely to have the same near-zero interest rates that further supported advertising growth after the financial crisis and through the pandemic, we expect further adoption of artificial intelligence and automation. . . more than make up for it and encourage further innovation”.
Digital advertising is forecast to account for 73 percent of total revenue by the end of next year — growing 12.4 percent globally in 2024 and 10 percent in 2025 — or 82 percent when streaming and digital newspaper and magazine revenues are included.
Traditional advertising channels such as television, print and radio are suffering from the dominance of digital options.
Globally, total print advertising revenue will decline by 4.5 percent in 2024 and a further 3 percent in 2025, audio revenue will remain flat next year, while TV, including linear and streaming, is forecast to grow only 2.4 percent in relation to the bases from 2024-29.
The U.S. is the largest advertising market, forecast to have revenues of about $379 billion in 2025, despite higher borrowing costs and more cautious guidance from some retailers, including electronics and home goods stores.
The report warned that tariffs and a stronger dollar after the election Donald Trump could affect the market. “Both of these developments are likely to further challenge FMCG and luxury advertisers facing a period of subdued spending.”
In China, total advertising revenue is expected to increase by 13.5 percent in 2024 to $204.5 billion. In Great Britain, Europe’s largest advertising market with 53.2 billion dollars in 2024, this year’s growth is estimated at 8.3 percent.
The report pointed to initiatives in China aimed at promoting consumer confidence and spending which, if successful, could “see stronger advertising growth as local and multinational advertisers look to capitalize on pent-up demand”.
