India’s road to the final of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) has become significantly tougher after a ten-wicket loss to Australia in the second Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy at the Adelaide Oval. With this loss, India slipped to third in the WTC rankings, with their points percentage (PCT) falling to 57.29.
Australia regains first place with a PCT index of 60.71, while South Africa remain in second place, poised to overtake if they win the ongoing Test against them Sri Lanka. With only three matches remaining in the current WTC cycle, India need to be near flawless in their remaining games to keep their last hopes alive.
What does India need to do?
India now faces a difficult task. To qualify fully without depending on other results:
- India need to win all three remaining Tests: This would increase their PCT to 64.05, securing a place in the final.
- If India win two matches and draw one: Their PCT will rise to 60.52, which should also be enough.
- Any further defeats or further draws: India would then rely on favorable results in other matches Australia and South Africa.
Scenarios if India do not win 4-1
If India cannot secure wins in their remaining three Tests, they will need other results to work in their favour. Let’s explore various results:
1. If India win 3-2:
- India will finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77.
- Australia, with only two matches remaining against Sri Lanka, cannot overcome this PCT.
- South Africa can only overcome it if they win both their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
2. If India win 3-1:
- India’s PCT will improve to 60.52.
- Australia, even with back-to-back wins, cannot break this mark.
- This scenario guarantees India a place in the final, barring outstanding results from South Africa.
3. If the series ends 2-2:
- India’s PCT will fall to 57.01.
- Australia would overcome this if they win both the remaining Tests against Sri Lanka.
- A 2-0 Australian win over Sri Lanka would knock India out of contention.
The role of Australia and South Africa
Australia are currently leading the standings but will depend on their results against Sri Lanka to secure their final spot. South Africa, with Tests remaining against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, remain a major threat Indiahis chances.
Can India achieve the impossible?
With a small margin for error, India need to regroup and put up a strong performance in their upcoming matches. Captain Rohit Sharma and the team will be looking to capitalize on the home conditions and secure their place in a third consecutive WTC final.
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