Iran lost confidence in now-ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad before his fall from power, according to analysts and insiders, and his foreign minister told him last week that a weakened Tehran could no longer send more forces to support his regime.
When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus last week, days after Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo fell to rebels, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad insisted that “his withdrawal from Aleppo was tactical and he remained under control,” said a Tehran government insider.
“Araghchi replied that Iran was no longer in a position to send forces to support him anyway. But we didn’t expect the collapse to come so soon or expose such a hollowness in his regime. This was a shock for us as well.”
Saeed Laylaz, an analyst close to Masoud Pezeshkian’s reformist government, said: “Assad has become more of an obstacle than an ally, which means his time is up. His defense was no longer justified, even if it marked a major setback for Iran.
“To support it further simply did not make sense and would have prohibitive costs.”
Iran’s influence in the region has been severely weakened by Israeli attacks on its personnel and assets in Syria and on Hezbollah, its proxy militant group in Lebanon, eroding its ability to support the Assad regime.
At the same time, Iranian officials viewed Assad as increasingly unreliable, if not outright treasonous, while analysts and insiders accused him of failing to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets at home.
The insider said there is long-standing frustration with Assad in Tehran. “For more than a year it was clear that his time had passed. He became an obstacle, an obstacle – some even called him a traitor. His inaction cost us dearly, and he aligned himself with regional actors who promised him a future that never materialized.”
Some inside the Iranian government believe Assad has begun courting Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, lured by promises of post-war reconstruction aid in exchange for distancing himself from Iran, analysts and politicians said.
After Assad’s fall to rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni rebel group, recriminations arose among Tehran’s leadership. “People inside his regime were leaking information about the whereabouts of Iranian commanders,” the insider claimed. “Assad turned his back on us when we needed him the most.”
A foreign diplomat said the Iranians and some Syrian loyalists “appear to be headed for Iraq.” They said members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, which have been present in Syria for more than a decade, had left, along with diplomats and families, “in large numbers over the past few days.”
The fall of Assad, whose family ruled for more than five decades, comes as a devastating blow to Iran’s foreign policy. For decades, Tehran has anchored its strategy on an “axis of resistance” against the US and Israel, using a network of intermediaries across the region.
Syria was a critical link in this chain, serving as a gateway for Iran to supply and finance Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. That link has now been severed, after Syrian rebels seized Damascus in what turned out to be the final chapter of the Assad regime.
The speed of the offensive shocked observers, achieving in less than two weeks what opposition forces had failed to do in 13 years of devastating war. Tehran has long derided HTS as “terrorists” linked to US and Israeli interests.
Assad’s two main backers — Russia and Iran — did little to help him as the endgame neared. Russia was preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, and Iran with its conflict with Israel, which switched from shadow operations to open confrontation. That conflict has contributed to more than a decade of debilitating US sanctions that have severely depleted Iran’s financial and military resources.
For now, Tehran is taking a cautious approach, waiting to gauge the intentions of Syria’s new rulers. Iran’s foreign ministry called for respect for Syria’s “territorial integrity” and signaled its willingness to work with the UN to resolve the crisis.
Regaining influence in Syria and Lebanon will be a huge task for Tehran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah — its most powerful regional proxy — has been hit hard by Israel’s campaign, which has killed senior leaders and targeted its infrastructure, weapons and civilian affiliates before a ceasefire agreed last month. At least 19 Iranian commanders were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Syria last year, and the targeted facilities are key to Tehran’s regional operations.
Tehran is equally worried about a possible spillover into Iraq, its western neighbor, where Shiite militias remain the backbone of its regional policy.
Asghar Zarei, an analyst close to the regime, said Assad had “behaved badly” since the October 2023 war between Hamas and Israel, without elaborating.
“Unfortunately, everything we built over 40 years fell apart overnight,” he said on state television. “Rebuilding our position will be extremely difficult. We must ensure that this does not happen in Iraq or Yemen. It’s time to tighten the belt somewhere else.”
Some Iranian analysts argue that cooperation with HTS, despite the group’s Sunni Islamist orientation, could help Iran retain some influence. But Motahhari, a former parliamentarian, called for pragmatic engagement.
“We should negotiate with HTS,” he said, noting that the militant group, while opposed to Shiites, also shares Iran’s opposition to Israel.
Israel does not expect Iranian influence to melt away in its backyard. “Iran thrives in chaos. It is too early to say that Iran is retreating in Syria or that Hezbollah is on the run, a senior Israeli official said. “There are likely scenarios where we have to deal with Iran on our Syrian border for another decade.”
Hardliners in Iran demanded an aggressive response. Ahmad Naderi, a hardline lawmaker, suggested that Tehran must simultaneously “revive the wounded resistance front” and conduct nuclear weapons tests to reassert its regional position.
Others urge caution. “Iran cannot do much in the region for now,” Laylaz said. “Rebuilding Hezbollah and assessing the new Middle East order will take time. Until then, Iran must be careful.”
Cartography by Cleve Jones and Steven Bernard
