After more than a year of relentless conflict in the Middle East, the stunning capitulation of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will go down in the history of the region as one of its biggest shocks.
In just 12 days, the rebels marched from the north and then from the south into the heart of Damascus, capture of the capital and ending Assad’s more than 50-year dynastic rule over the nation. In less than two weeks, they achieved what tens of thousands of armed opposition fighters failed to do in 13 horrific years of civil war.
Moscow and Tehran, Assad’s main backers, have been unable or unwilling to stem the tide, both caught up in their own conflicts – Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its proxies in their 14-month conflict with Israel.
In many ways, the spectacular fall of the regime appears to be one of the unintended consequences Israel’s fierce reprisals against its enemies since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The following year upended all previous norms in the region, fostering a combustible, unpredictable environment.
Israeli forces have been launching airstrikes against Syria for months, killing Iranian and proxy commanders, while bombing Iranian-linked facilities and Hezbollaha Lebanese militant movement that also supported the Assad regime during the civil war.
But more than anything, the rebels’ lightning offensive has underscored the wretched nature of Assad’s broken, corrupt regime.
Assadwho succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, was a brutal despot. He used the most brutal means to suppress his opponents during the civil war: chemical weapons, barrel bombs, siege and starvation tactics, mass detentions, torture and murder.
More than 12 million people – half the population – were forced to flee their homes during the decade of war. There are more than 100,000 so-called “disappeared” – people who have been taken by security forces and whose whereabouts are still unknown.
As the parasitic regime bled the country, even those from its minority Alawite community, who had sent their sons to die in Assad’s war against their own people, became demoralized, hopeless after years of deepening economic and social woes.
Assad’s death will be welcomed by the many millions who suffered under his rule because he refused to compromise and negotiate a political deal with his opponents that could have stabilized the country and put it on a different path.
But the mass outpouring of jubilation will be tempered by caution about what comes next.
The offensive was led by the most powerful rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that is a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, designated a terrorist organization by the UN, the US and other countries. His leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolaniwho has publicly expressed his desire to conquer Damascus and now appears to be a key decision-maker, once fought with the jihadist group Isis, and has a $10 million bounty on his head.
In the six years since HTS has ruled the northwestern province of Idlib through a civilian-led government, it has sought to rebrand the group as a more moderate Islamist movement. But he maintained control with an iron grip, and UN agencies documented abuses.
If Jolani, 42, succeeds in his ambition to rule, it will create conundrums for Western powers and international agencies about how they should work with him and HTS.
But HTS is only one of a number of opposition groups that are remnants of the original rebellion and participated in the attack. And in the past, different factions clashed with each other.
During the latest offensive, there was coordination between HTS and Turkish-backed factions operating under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army and other groups encircling Damascus from the south.
However, the real test will come when the factions seek to share the spoils of victory – and power.
Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, said he took comfort in the fact that the insurgency appears to have been clearly coordinated between HTS and various other groups, describing the attack on the regime as a “plan of controlled demolition.”
“This sense of euphoria and pride is also tempered by the sense that there could be violence – it’s almost too good to be true,” Abdeh said. “But it is clear that there is a plan, HTS and Jolani very carefully communicated that there is a map. This put a lot of people at ease.”
In addition to Sunni Muslim rebel groups, there are Kurdish-led forces — backed by the US in the fight against Islamic State — that control parts of northeastern Syria.
Turkey, however, considers them expansion of Kurdish separatists who fought against the Turkish state for decades.
Turkish troops have been deployed in northern Syria for several years to counter Kurdish militants and their links to Sunni rebel groups. This means that Ankara is now arguably the most powerful actor in its neighbor and will play a key role in what comes next.
Turkey, however, has a complex, sometimes uneasy relationship with HTS, which it has also designated a terrorist organization.
Meanwhile, the US has around 900 soldiers in the country supporting the fight against the Islamic State.
As well as the risk of infighting within the rebels, there will be fears that Isis — which once controlled large parts of northern and northeastern Syria — will try to take advantage of the chaos and make a comeback.
Minority groups across Syria, long one of the most secular countries in the region — a factor that served Assad as a minority — will be anxious about what comes next. The country has a diverse population of tribes, religions and sects.
During the offensive, Jolani, an urban pragmatist, reached out to tribes, former adversaries, and brokered surrender agreements while ordering the protection of minorities.
Neighboring countries, including Israel, Jordan and Lebanon, will also be wary, as will Gulf states that have re-engaged Assad in recent years and see Islamist movements as destabilizing forces.
This helped Syria’s neighbors see Assad weakened, and Israel has long wanted an end to the presence of Iran and Hezbollah on its northern border. But there will also be concerns about the potential prospect of a fragile, hollowed-out state in chaos with Islamist groups at the helm.
When popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes swept across the Middle East in 2011, a wave of optimism swept through the region. But it was all too short.
Syria has plunged into its own devastating civil war. In Egypt, the military seized power in a popularly backed coup two years after veteran President Hosni Mubarak was ousted and ruled by one of the region’s most autocratic regimes.
Libya saw a momentary conflict with democracy before rival armed factions turned on each other, and the North African nation remains fractured and chaotic.
The challenge facing Syria now that Assad has finally been toppled is whether it can navigate the pitfalls and avoid the calamities that have befallen other nations since the despot’s fall, and begin the daunting process of reconstruction and reconciliation.
