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The writer is the chairman of the Department of Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a professor at Georgetown University and the author of the book ‘Korea: A New History of South and North’
When President Joe Biden worries about Korea, his thoughts tend to center on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s unpredictability, brandishing of nuclear weapons and troop deployments to support Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Still, this week’s political chaos in South Korea has raised concerns that a key US partner in Indo-Pacific strategy, semiconductor supply chains and the fight against Russia’s attack on Ukraine could become the latest victim of democratic backsliding.
President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law recalled the days of Korea’s military dictators nearly half a century ago. His actions opened a prolonged period of political instability in South Korea at the most inopportune time, with threats from China, North Korea and Russia rising. The only recognizable outcome at this point is the removal of the current president, but the timing and manner of this process could have a high economic and political price for Korea, the US and the world.
The dynamics of the political crisis in Korea should not seem unfamiliar to the West. Polarization, demonization of democratic rivals and weaponization of government instruments have brought the ruling and opposition parties into a head-scratching crisis. The groundwork was laid in April when the opposition party took control of the 300-seat unicameral legislature in national elections. Since then, the Democratic Party has blocked the president’s legislation and stalled the state budget.
In addition, a political knife fight raged along party lines. Prosecutors linked to the government have gone after the leader of the opposition party on corruption charges, and anti-government elements have demonized the president’s wife for her extravagant taste in designer handbags and suspicious hoarding of gifts. Political rumors on the streets of Seoul spoke of large street demonstrations against the government in December. It was a powder keg waiting to explode, and the ignition followed with Yoon’s surprise decision to impose martial law on the evening of December 3rd.
This is not the first time South Korea has faced political crises, but they often ended in ways that affirmed the country’s democratic strength. For example, in 2016, peaceful street protests began every weekend by business professionals, families, workers and students and led to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye the following year, followed by constitutionally mandated snap elections that were impeccably conducted.
In 2022, Yoon was elected president by a narrower margin than Joe Biden in 2020. But no one claimed election fraud or ballot box stuffing, and no one stormed the capital like Washington in January 2021. The loser conceded defeat within hours of the final count and congratulated the winner. These incidents underscore that South Korea is one of Asia’s most vibrant, if unruly, democracies.
But the resilience of democracy this time is uncertain. Although Yoon returned troops to their barracks after the national legislature rejected his martial law decree, the crisis is far from over. More than 70 percent of the public wants Yoon removed, but the ruling party has yet to agree to the opposition party’s call for impeachment. The crisis has already precipitated popular protests in central Seoul — they will only grow if there is no quick solution. The president has defiantly refused to resign and may try to put the leader of the opposition party in jail on corruption charges, disqualifying him from running in the next election. How it will end is uncertain, but the nightmare scenario would be the return of the military to the streets. Yoon’s anger and frustration could lead him to declare a second state of emergency amid political chaos.
Such a scenario would have dire implications for Korean democracy. The military would be under pressure to disobey their commander in chief. The stock market could fall and business confidence would face downward pressure. North Korea could be encouraged to take advantage of the political instability with some “gray zone” military action, such as carrying out its threat to declare a new maritime border with the South in the hope that Seoul will be too distracted to respond.
The US has so far maintained a cautious stance, taking no sides and focusing on the need to respect the rule of law and the constitutional process as the Koreans seek to resolve the crisis. But a second declaration of emergency would force Washington to turn on the South Korean president who has been the only staunch supporter of the alliance and of Biden’s overall foreign policy on Asia, economic security and the war in Europe.
There is an irony in the fact that Yoon — who made support for democratic values ​​and freedom a theme of South Korea’s global role and his presidency — may be remembered for the most undemocratic action taken at home. His removal as leader is almost certain, but hopefully not at the cost of democracy, security and prosperity of the country and all who work with it.
