Our football betting expert Jones Knows returns to provide more Premier League insight ahead of the weekend card.
Everton – Liverpool, Saturday 12.30
Are Everton dangerous underdogs here? This looks like a free kick for them after their important win over Wolves eases the pressure ahead of a grueling run of games that includes Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City after that against the title favourites.
This Wolves win was the first time Everton had scored three or more goals in a Premier League game for 42 games – in that period they averaged less than one goal per game at just 0.95 goals per 90.
The last eight Merseyside derbies have been filled with punters backing the 2.5 goal line and this looks like another chance to back it at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Liverpool have had a rough and tumble schedule of late – something that affected their tenacious but underwhelming performance at Newcastle. They may not be at their free-flowing best here with a low-scoring win away from home.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Aston Villa – Southampton, Saturday 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Goals, goals, goals is starting to be the theme of the Premier League season again, so when a game has all the ingredients for a goal celebration, the players will have to act accordingly to support the over lines.
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brentford
In the 30 Premier League games since the recent international break, the average goals per game is 3.39 with 14 of those games having over 3.5 goals. Villa and Southampton have been responsible for four of those matches and bring a very healthy overall goal average to the table this season anyway. The over 3.5 goals line looks interesting in this one at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
Brentford v Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
In song, Alexander Isak is probably the most complete striker in the Premier League, isn’t he?
Alexander Isak is 9/2 to score first with Sky Bet
Yes, Erling Haaland is the more ruthless goalscorer, but Isak’s pace, mobility, guile and skill is something that could take Newcastle to some special places if he can remain consistent. The Swede was excellent against Liverpool, giving Virgil van Dijk the opportunity for big plays – something not many strikers have done this season.
If Newcastle and Issac can match the intensity and bite the show in this stunning 3-3 draw with Liverpool, then Brentford won’t see where they’ve gone and that explains why Eddie Howe’s side are favourites. on 13/10. But it is difficult to predict which version of them will appear.
Isak has scored in both of his appearances against Brentford and only Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer have averaged more goals per game than Isak’s 0.56 since arriving at Newcastle. He is the bet here to score first at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace – Manchester City, Saturday 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester City looked more like themselves in the final third in their 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, but something is still lacking in possession. Forest caused them major problems in transition and a lack of legs in midfield will continue to be a problem for Pep Guardiola, who was happy to miss a great chance at 1-0 when he got in on goal.
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester City and Nottingham Forest
And Palace have the pace and power in attack, as well as a very smart manager in Oliver Glasner, to cause problems. I’ll be surprised if they don’t take the same approach as they did at Aston Villa where they played very direct and put the ball quickly in front of Ismaila Sarr, who enjoyed the game on the counter and scored a goal. He is a good price with Sky Bet at 7/2 to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ismaila Sarr to score (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Leicester v Brighton, Saturday 15:00
Being lucky is a key part of life – and Ruud van Nistelrooy gets his fair share. Not only did he land a job in the Premier League by being in the right place at the right time, he somehow managed to win a football match by two goals despite missing the 8-31 shooting tally and the expected goal battle 1 ,67-3,10. The thing about luck is that it eventually runs out as I find it hard to see anything other than a Brighton win if the Leicester we’ve seen all season turn up here.
The Foxes have shipped 18.14 shots per game in the Premier League – the most of any team as their defense has been strained. Double Brighton to win and have 16 or more shots at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United v Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I really like Manchester United’s games to be low scoring, while Ruben Amorim treats games like trials. It’s a very bold move for him to continue to chop and change his players in a world where results are everything, especially at a club like Manchester United.
It’s hard to create patterns of play and consistency in the forward areas when you’re constantly refreshing the side. Getting a team to score is much more difficult than picking apart the defense.
We know that Nottingham Forest will play a very defensive type of game under Nuno Espirito Santo, who likes to keep things tight. This calendar year only Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City have a better expected goal process than Forest, offering just 1.25 expected goals per 90. I can see it being a tough nut to crack for this United team. The under 2.5 goals line at Evens looks like a piece of cake.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | Jones KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (Even with Sky Bet)
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 14:00, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When the program becomes as intense as it is now, shock effects occur.
This seems like a candidate for such a scenario Super Sundaywhere Arsenal are easily diverted for many reasons at 15/8 with Sky Bet. Looking back at the last few seasons at this time of year, when a weekend game follows a midweek game, the Gunners have lost to Everton twice, lost at Aston Villa and drawn 1-1 with Southampton.
And Fulham are a serious side who are having a good season under Marco Silva.
Sunday 8 December 13:00
Start 14:00
They have won the expected goal battle in 13 of their last 15 matches, including against Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa. This shows us that Fulham have consistent levels of performance, limiting teams with their defensive approach and creating good chances at the other end. That makes them look huge value in the draw with Sky Bet at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Ipswich v Bournemouth, Sunday 14:00
An Ipswich centre-back will score soon – and I want to be with him when he does. Kieran McKenna has looked to make Ipswich more of a set-piece threat with the signings of Dara O’Shea and Jacob Greaves – two very dangerous centre-backs when it comes to attacking set-pieces.
It’s showing signs of work as Town’s centre-backs have had 24 shots between them with an expected goals ratio of 1.89 this season. With Leif Davies’ left foot stick delivering the goods, one comes.
Both O’Shea and Greaves are 14/1 to score anytime with Sky Bet – some long shots to be taken seriously.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham v Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Whether Chelsea are in this title race or not, there is no hiding the fact that they have won 13 of their last 19 Premier League games. It looks like a great time to play Tottenham with the schedule making life difficult for Ange Postecoglou, who is under pressure now.
A key part of a manager now when managing the big clubs is to rotate his squad to avoid injuries – some do it better than others. And Spurs are a team that suffers injuries and fatigue more than others.
This will be their fifth game in 15 days – it’s also been a torrid run against Man City, Roma, Fulham and Bournemouth.
Chelsea look one of the best bets of the weekend to win away at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | Jones KNOWS BEST BET: Chelsea to beat Tottenham (5/4 with Sky Bet)
West Ham v Wolves, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
It will be hard to sell this bet – but I really like the under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet – even though these two teams are terrible defensively. Wolves have conceded 2.19 goals per game this calendar year and West Ham 2.15.
Of the ever-present Premier League teams in that period, we are dealing with the worst two defences.
However, Gary O’Neil said after that defeat at Everton: “I’ve got to find a way to give the club a better chance on Monday night.”
He was talking about Wolves not being able to get things going at Everton – all four goals came from set-pieces. So, reading between the lines, he will essentially go 11 men behind the ball at the London Stadium and engage in low block mode to frustrate the Hammers who will have no sympathy from a disgruntled fan base.
It could be a tough watch, but that’s perfectly fine if we’re taking advantage of a low-rated snooze-fest.
