A look into Putin’s mindset: what team Trump can expect from Moscow as they negotiate options for the Russia-Ukraine war


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Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the proposal reportedly from President-elect Donald Trump’s team trying to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which will cross the four-year mark next February.

“Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals made on behalf of representatives of the President-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership of NATO for twenty years, and to introduce a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces in Ukraine” , said Lavrov. said in an interview with TASS, the official news agency of the Russian government.

Lavrov’s statement likely foreshadows the aggressive stance Russian President Vladimir Putin will take toward Trump on Ukraine. Reaching an agreement with Putin will likely be virtually impossible, even for such a strong negotiator as Trump. This is why.

At his annual press conference last month, Putin had all but ruled out concluding a peace deal with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In response to a journalist’s question as to whether he had any prerequisites for entering into negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied that he had any prerequisites. However, when Putin clarified his answer, he stated that Russia would “only sign documents” with representatives of legitimate authorities.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during his year-end press conference.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual year-end press conference and phone call in Moscow on December 19, 2024. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)

He argued that Zelenskyy and his government were “illegitimate,” explaining that “the Constitution of Ukraine contains no provisions for expanding presidential authority even in wartime.” Zelensky’s term did indeed expire on May 20. “You know, if someone runs for elections and gains legitimacy, we will talk to anyone, including Zelensky,” Putin added.

Putin, a lawyer by profession, claimed that only Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliament, existed of Ukraine and its chairman, Ruslan Stefanchuk, were “legitimate” because the Constitution of Ukraine allows the expansion of powers for Rada in wartime. However, the Rada and its chairman “are completely under the head of the regime,” he claimed, likely referring to the fact that Zelenskyy’s party, The Servant of the People, controls the majority in the body after the 2019 parliamentary elections. Putin claims that the illegitimacy of Zelensky, who is technically above Stefanchuk, makes the Rada and its decisions illegitimate.

Putin also ruled out a ceasefire during his press conference. A Russian journalist wondered whether it was “feasible” to “simply call a ceasefire at any time” to “stop the war,” referring to Trump and his retired Russia-Ukraine envoy. Lt. Gen. Keith Kelloggwho he said spoke about ending the war before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Ukrainian soldiers

Fellow soldiers carry the coffin of Petro Velykiy, 48, who died in combat with Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, during a farewell ceremony at the Music and Drama Theater in Chernyhiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday, November 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Dan Bashakov)

Putin responded: “Suspending (combat operations) for a week means giving the opponent the opportunity to gain a foothold in its positions. To give him the opportunity to rest, obtain the necessary military hardware, ammunition….” Putin then claimed that “a relatively long period of ceasefire will allow the opponent to receive training and retraining,” stating advocated maintaining momentum as Russian forces deplete “weapon systems.” ammunition, ammunition and especially personnel of the Ukrainian army.”

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Putin is confident that he can continue until Ukraine capitulates or until the deal is concluded on Russian terms, which are unacceptable to Washington and very likely even to Trump’s team. Putin wants to keep 20% of Ukraine’s territory, plus Crimea, legal guarantees that Ukraine will become a neutral state with no path to NATO membership, US and Western sanctions on Russia and the West’s recognition of annexed territories as Russian.

Putin is confident he can make a tough deal, even with Trump. From a combat potential standpoint – weapons, troops, defense economics and military-industrial production capacity – Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “close competitor” to the US military, has an overwhelming strategic advantage over Ukraine. Because Russia’s population is three times that of Ukraine, manpower is also hugely in Moscow’s favor.

Zelensky Trump New York

Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower on Friday, September 27, 2024 in New York City. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Putin has mobilized additional troops non-stop during this conflict, including through covert means. Russia has already deployed a 15% larger force than at the start of the war. In September, Putin ordered a new expansion of the Russian armed forces by decree, adding 180,000 troops. The Russian army now has 2.38 million people, of which 1.5 million are active soldiers. Putin has shown he can draw in personnel from his allies, adding 11,000 North Korean soldiers to the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

Putin even mocked Trump’s team, albeit indirectly. Russian dictator challenged Washington to a ’21st century high-tech duel’ to test US air defense and missile defense systems against the Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missilethat would focus on Kiev. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready for it? Let’s organize such an experiment, such a technological duel and see what happens. I think it would be useful for us and for the American side.”

Putin indicated that Trump would have to contact him first to start the talks. In response to an NBC journalist’s question about when Putin would meet Trump and what concessions he would make given that he “will be a weaker leader,” Putin said: “First of all, I don’t know when he and I will meeting, because he doesn’t say anything about that. I haven’t spoken to him in over four years.” Putin added that he is “ready” to speak to Trump “at any time” if he wants.

Ukrainian troops fight during military operations in the Kursk region in Malaya Loknya, Kursk region, Russia, in this screenshot obtained from a handout video released on August 20, 2024.

Ukrainian troops fight during military operations in the Kursk region in Malaya Loknya, Kursk region, Russia, in this screenshot obtained from a handout video released on August 20, 2024. (Air Assault Brigade/presentation via REUTERS)

Putin denied that he would be in a weaker position and stated that he has a ‘different point of view’. He said: “I believe that Russia has become much stronger in the last two to three years. Why? sovereign nation. We are not dependent on many.” In anticipation of and in the aftermath of Western sanctions on Moscow in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin has sanctions-proofed the Russian economy and reduced its dependence on foreign, especially Western, technology.

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Putin’s measures include launching an import substitution program in Russia’s manufacturing industries to boost domestic production, de-dollarization of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, leading the BRICS and an initiative aimed at replacing the US dollar by an alternative currency. the main currency for international exchange, and strengthening economic and military relations with non-Western countries, both US allies, such as India, and adversaries, such as China, Iran and North Korea.

Given that Putin will almost certainly play hardball and the limited influence the US has over Russia – unlike, for example, China – Team Trump will have to look for creative solutions if the master of ‘The Art of the Deal’ wants to fulfill his campaign promise to bring peace to Ukraine.

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