The threat posed by Islamic State has again made headlines after the attack New Year’s Day attack on a busy New Orleans street on Wednesday by a man believed to have ties to the terrorist network.
Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a US-born citizen living in Texas and an Army veteran, drove a pickup truck flying an ISIS flag into a crowd of people on Bourbon Street, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens of others .
However, the FBI has not confirmed its direct “link” or “association” with the infamous terrorist network that has expanded across the world in recent years, particularly in regions such as the Sahel in Africa, despite the 2019 claim that it terrorist network has been ‘defeated’.
Law enforcement officers from multiple agencies are on scene on Bourbon Street after at least fifteen people were killed when a person reportedly drove into a crowd in the early morning hours of New Year’s Day, January 1, 2025 in New Orleans. (Michael DeMocker/Getty Images)
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“Claims about the defeat of Islamic State, like claims about the defeat of Al Qaeda, are premature,” Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal, told Fox News Digital. “These groups may have setbacks, but they are persistent.
“The Islamic State poses a threat from Afghanistan. It has a significant network in Africa, especially in the Sahel and in East Africa, in Somalia. And its network in Iraq and Syria continues,” he added.
While the FBI has not confirmed that the New Orleans attacker was directly involved with ISIS, reports have suggested that he apparently sympathized with the terrorist network and “pledged allegiance to ISIS” in a series of videos posted to his Facebook page. according to The New York Times.
The FBI has not yet released a motive for the attack, and Roggio explained that the incident is unlikely to indicate an ISIS “resurgence,” although the security expert did emphasize that the terrorist network is facing increasingly less resistance in the country. areas it was previously opposed to.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria Last month, the Al Qaeda-origin organization called Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham left security vacuums in the Middle East and South Asia – similar to what contributed to the rise of ISIS following the US withdrawal from Iraq. Security experts have warned that ISIS and other terrorist networks could take advantage of these power differentials.
People wave weapons in the air as they gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Square on December 8 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)
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ISIS-K – the regional affiliate of the terrorist group originated in Iraq and Syria – gained international attention in August 2021 when it attacked Afghans fleeing the Taliban takeover during the US withdrawal and used a suicide bombing to kill 13 US service members and about 170 Afghan civilians.
The Taliban takeover raised concerns that Afghanistan would become a safe haven for terrorists such as Taliban allies Al Qaeda, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other jihadist groups, although there were also concerns that the new governing body in Afghanistan would be threatened . unable to resist ISIS-K.
ISIS-K has largely failed to do so thrive significantly in Afghanistan after the fall of the democratic government and the withdrawal of the American armed forces, but it is no longer protested so strongly.
“The Taliban and the Islamic State are enemies. The Taliban are going after the Islamic State even when we’re not there – that doesn’t make them a counter-terrorism partner, but now they don’t have the dual threat against them – the US is targeting the Islamic State and the Taliban is targeting the Islamic State – they have greater freedom of movement,” Roggio said.
A fighter from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) holds an ISIL flag and a weapon on a street in the city of Mosul, June 23, 2014. (Reuters photo)
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The security expert said that when it comes to Afghanistan and the threats against the US and its Western allies, the Taliban and Al Qaeda remain a bigger threat than ISIS, although he emphasized that ISIS is increasingly “getting more room to operate.”
“The Assad regime was an enemy of the Islamic State,” Roggio said. “One of Islamic State’s enemies has been taken off the board, and therefore it will give ISIS more room to rebuild strength in an area where it already has a significant presence.”
However, there is a third area where ISIS has strong roots and where it could see a resurgence if the US were to withdraw troops from the area again.
The Biden administration announced in September that the US, in coordination with the Iraqi government, will end its military mission in Iraq to combat Islamic State by 2026. The move was met with immediate concern by security experts who argued that ISIS remains a top threat. to the US, and it could further endanger American soldiers still fighting the terrorist network in Syria.
Details of the troop withdrawal remain unclear, and no plans have emerged to renegotiate a change in withdrawal plans following the collapse of the Assad regime and the ambiguous situation in Syria.
Moreover, it remains unlikely that the new Trump administration will insist on keeping US soldiers in Iraq despite the threat posed by ISIS, given the newly elected president’s attempt to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan during his first term.
Service members part of Operation Inherent Resolve stand in formation and salute the flag of the United States during a Memorial Day ceremony at Union III in Baghdad on May 27, 2024. (US Army)
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“The US must decide whether to remain in Iraq and Syria to counter the Islamic State and other targets,” Roggio said. “And if the country decides to stay, it must strengthen its presence to deter threats from militias that have attacked U.S. forces.
“US efforts to contain the Islamic State are critical. Without the American presence there, groups like Islamic State will thrive given the lawlessness,” the security expert added. ‘No matter how bad the Assad regime was, and it was a terrible regimeit has fought the Islamic State – so without their presence you have another terrorist organization nominally in control of large parts of Syria.
“As we learned in Afghanistan, terrorists cannot be trusted to fight other terrorists,” Roggio added.
Fox News Digital was unable to reach Trump’s transition team for comment on his plans for U.S. troops in the Middle East.
