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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
In less than three weeks, Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States for the second time. Although much of his appeal comes from his disregard for convention, Trump is essentially a very predictable person. Since losing the 2020 election, he has repeatedly promised to use the tools of the US justice system to deal with enemies. According to this, the returning president should be taken literally and seriously. The same applies to his position that officials owe their loyalty to him personally and not to the US Constitution.
In his first term, Trump he often lost his cool when his more reckless desires were blocked by government lawyers, Pentagon officials, intelligence agencies and others in the so-called ministries of power. This time he made an effort to nominate people who could be trusted to carry out his orders regardless of rules and conventions. Former Attorney General Bill Barr claimed that Trump in his first term proposed that rivals be “executed”. Barr said he wasn’t worried about Trump’s urges because he knew they would be thwarted.
Such complacency is no longer deserved. Last July, the Supreme Court significantly increased Trump’s powers by granting almost blanket immunity to “official acts” of the US president. Theoretical this could include assassinations of political opponents. In practice, this will almost certainly involve a legal witch hunt against Trump’s detractors in politics, the media and civil society. Some of them, such as Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman, and Mark Milley, the former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, he repeatedly pointed out.
It would be reckless to assume that the punitive impulse would stop at the water’s edge. Even before taking office, Trump is threatened with expropriation The Panama Canal, which was returned to Panamanian sovereignty in 1999, and expressed intentions to Greenlandwhich was under Danish sovereignty for a long time. While Democratic and Republican administrations have ignored international law when it suited them, none have come close to Trump’s disdain for the very concept. The world should prepare for a far less restrained Trump in his second term than last time.
The caliber of Trump senior nominee it is necessary to concentrate minds in the country and abroad. of these, Kash Patelas head of the FBI, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as US Secretary of Defense, set off the loudest alarms. Patel is a Trump ultra-loyalist who has published his own list of enemies. Gabbard was a fan of the brutal, recently ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and often repeats Vladimir Putin’s propaganda about Ukraine. Hegseth, the Fox News host, believes the US military should be purged and replaced with Trump loyalists.
The most effective check on Trump’s illiberal impulses could be the US Senate. Republicans have a slim 53-47 majority. Four Republicans are enough to block a candidate. Indeed, Matt Gaetz, Trump’s first choice for his next attorney general, had to withdraw when it became clear that he lacked votes. True conservatives are surely aware that the rule of law lies at the heart of the American tradition and market economy. The Senate should block the confirmation of Patel, Gabbard and Hegseth. Lower court judges, the media and civil society also have ample room to blunt Trump’s worst impulses.
Like all powerful men, Trump fears the brave and despises the sycophants. He has threatened to use his presidential powers to target those who block his path. Giving in to Trump’s wishes will only increase them. The US system is about to receive the mother of all stress tests. Courage, above all, will be the most precious virtue in the months ahead.
