As the cricketing world turns its gaze towards the World Trials Championship (WTC) The final scheduled for June 2025 at Lord’s, the recent Boxing Day Test significantly changed the qualifying landscape. AustraliaHis emphatic 184-run victory India not only did it give them a 2-1 lead in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 but also increased their chances of reaching the WTC final for the second time in a row. With both teams now in contention for a place, the question is: What if India and Australia finish on the same points?
A crucial final test for India
India’s hopes of retaining the Border-Gavaskar Trophy hinge on their performance in the upcoming Test in Sydney, scheduled from January 3 to 7, 2025. Currently, India are at 114 points in the WTC rankings, need a win to take their total to 126 points from a possible 228. This would result in a points percentage (PCT) 55.26%, crucial to their qualification hopes. A draw or loss, however, would eliminate them from contention altogether.
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Australia’s road to victory
Australia, on the other hand, currently have 118 points and can secure a maximum of 154 points if they win all their remaining matches. Even if they lose to India in Sydney, their fate will depend on their upcoming series against Sri Lanka. If Australia lose to India and Sri Lanka win by a score of 2-0 or 1-0, India could overtake Australia in the standings.
The identical points scenario
The scenario where both teams finish with the same points—126 each—is plausible. This will happen if India win in Sydney while Sri Lanka draw their series against Australia. In this case both groups would end up with a PCT of 55.26%. WTC rules state that if teams are tied on points, the team with the most runs wins advances. Both teams would have three game wins each, requiring further tiebreakers.
Decisive factor of the tie
In the event of a tie on points and a winning streak, the next determining factor is the percentage of points earned in away games. India’s away record includes two Tests at West Indies (1 win, 1 draw), two in South Africa (1 win, 1 loss) and five in Australia (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw), giving them a total of 56 out of a possible 108 points (51.85% win rate). In contrast, Australia’s away record includes five Tests in England (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw), two home tests New Zealand (2 wins) and two Tests in Sri Lanka (2 draws), giving them a total of 60 out of 108 points (55.56% win rate).
With such high stakes, cricket fans eagerly await the conclusion of this exciting series and the upcoming matches against Sri Lanka and Australia, it is clear that every game will be monumental for both India and Australia.
